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Interpreting the GFSX Model





                               Sample Message

          KDCA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE    2/19/2005  0000 UTC
          FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
          THU  19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26 CLIMO
          X/N  81| 66  82| 68  84| 68  80| 63  76| 59  75| 59  75| 59  75 60 77
          TMP  74| 67  75| 69  75| 69  72| 64  68| 61  68| 61  68| 61  68
          DPT  64| 64  67| 67  70| 67  66| 59  57| 54  56| 55  54| 55  56
          CLD  PC| CL  PC| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| CL  OV| CL  CL| CL  PC
          WND  10| 10  11| 10  13|  9  12| 12  14|  9  13| 11  13| 10  12
          P12   7|  3   7| 11  27| 42  48| 44  24| 26  18| 22  14| 26  23 17 17
          P24    |      7|     28|     55|     44|     37|     25|     34    24
          Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  3   5|  4   0|  3   0|  0    |
          Q24    |      0|      0|      4|      3|      4|       |
          T12   0|  0   0|  5  12| 18  20| 20   4|  5   5|  5   6|  8   6
          T24    |  0    |  5    | 24    | 30    | 10    |  9    | 12
          PZP   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   2|  0   0|  0   2|  0   1|  1   2
          PSN   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   1|  0   1|  0   0
          PRS   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   2|  1   0|  1   1
          TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R
          SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|       |       |

          ----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
          FHR = Forecast hour, i.e. how many hours from the model run time 

          X/N = daytime max/nightime min temperatures 

          TMP = temperature valid at that hour 

          DPT = dewpoint valid at that hour 

          CLD = mean total sky cover over the 12-hr period ending at that time 

          WND = maximum sustained surface wind (WND) during a 12-h period 

          P12 = 12-hr probability of precipitation (PoP) ending at that time 

          P24 = 24-hr PoP ending at that time 

          Q12 = 12-hr quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) ending at that time 

          Q24 = 24-hr QPF ending at that time 

          T12 = 12-hr probability of thunderstorm ending at that time 

          T24 = 24-hr probability of thunderstorm for the 1200-1200 UTC time period 
                ending at that time 

          PZP = conditional probability of freezing pcp occurring for the 12-hr 
                period ending at that time 

          PSN = conditional probability of snow occurring for the 12-hr period ending
                at that time 

          PRS = conditional probability of rain/snow mix occurring for the 12-hr 
                period ending at that time 

          TYP = conditional precipitation type for the 12-hr period ending at 
                that time 

          SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at 
                the indicated time. 

          CLIMO = climatological normals 


          Definitions of Categorical Elements

            MEX QPF Categories 
          0  no precipitation 
          1  0.01 to 0.09 inches 
          2  0.10 to 0.24 inches 
          3  0.25 to 0.49 inches 
          4  0.50 to 0.99 inches 
          5  1.00 to 1.99 inches 
          6  2.00 inches or greater 


            MEX Snow Fall Amount Categories 
          0  no snow or a trace expected 
          1  > a trace to < 2 inches  
          2  2 to < 4 inches  
          4  4 to < 6 inches  
          6  6 to < 8 inches  
          8  >= 8 inches  
 
            MEX Cloud (CLD) Categories 
          CL  mostly clear                    
          PC  partly cloudy 
          OV mostly cloudy 


            MEX Precipitation Type (TYP) Categories 
          S  pure snow or snow grains 
          Z  freezing rain/drizzle, ice pellets, or anything mixed with 
             freezing precip 
          RS rain/drizzle and snow mixed 
          R  pure rain/drizzle









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